Model forecast for Flensburg

The graph shows the measured water levels (black line) followed by a model forecast for the next three days (dashed line). A detailed view of the model forecast is shown below.

The colour-coded area indicates the uncertainty of the model, estimated using statistical methods, within which the water level is very likely to fluctuate. In individual cases, the water level may also fall outside this range if the weather situation develops very dynamically.

Detailed view of the model forecast

The figure shows the measured water levels (black line) and various predictions from high-resolution models specialising in the hydrodynamics of the western Baltic Sea (coloured lines).

Individual elements can be shown or hidden using the legend entries below the figure.

The BSH and DMI models each incorporate different current weather forecasts, which leads to differing model results. If the models differ greatly from one another, this indicates a higher degree of uncertainty in the forecast due to the weather conditions. If, on the other hand, they are close to one another, the forecast tends to be more reliable. The models are recalculated with current data at 0 UTC, 6 UTC, 12 UTC and 18 UTC and are available approximately 6 hours later. Water levels are shown as deviations from Normalhöhennull (NHN). In the Baltic Sea, Normalhöhennull corresponds to chart datum.